> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The World Bank Puts Guyana at 23.7 Per Cent and the Rest of the Caribbean at 2.5. It Is Also More Optimistic Than Guyana's Own Ministry. - URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/world-bank-lac-update-guyana-23-7-caribbean-growth-gap-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-08T15:04:37.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-11T05:16:58.000Z - Description: The World Bank's Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update, published October 2026, projects Guyana will grow 23.7 per cent this year against 2.2 per cent for the region and 2.5 per cent for the Caribbean excluding Guyana. Its April estimate was 16.3 per cent. - Author: Theon Alleyne - Tags: Guyana, Economy, Caribbean, Business, Analysis **Quick summary:** The World Bank's Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update, published in October 2026, projects Guyana will grow 23.7 per cent this year, against 2.2 per cent for the region. Its April estimate was 16.3 per cent. Guyana's own Mid-Year Report projects 20.8 per cent. By LCN Business Desk Caribbean tourism ministers spent this week in Georgetown describing a region short of investment and exposed to disaster. The World Bank has now put numbers on the thing they were talking around. Guyana is projected to grow **23.7 per cent** in 2026\. The Latin America and Caribbean region is projected to grow **2.2 per cent**. That is a gap of roughly eleven to one, and the host of the conference is on one side of it alone. ## What does the report actually project? A four-year run that decelerates and stays enormous. | Guyana, real GDP growth | | | ----------------------- | --------- | | 2023 | 33.8% | | 2024 | 43.8% | | 2025 | 19.3% | | **2026 projected** | **23.7%** | | 2027 projected | 18.7% | | 2028 projected | 15.3% | Source: World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update, October 2026. Against that, the Bank puts regional growth at **2.4 per cent in 2025** and **2.2 per cent in 2026**. Excluding Guyana, Caribbean growth is expected at **2.5 per cent in 2026** and 3.7 per cent in 2027. The Bank describes Guyana and Suriname as the exceptions to a more tempered recovery elsewhere, both driven by oil, and notes that tourism-dependent Caribbean economies are carrying high energy and transportation costs. ## How much has the forecast moved? By 7.4 percentage points since April. The Bank's April estimate for Guyana in 2026 was **16.3 per cent**. The October figure is 23.7\. A forecast revised upward by more than seven points inside six months is not a refinement, and it says as much about the difficulty of forecasting this economy as about the economy itself. ## Where does that leave Guyana's own forecast? Below the Bank's, which is the unusual direction. Guyana's [Mid-Year Report 2026](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-gdp-first-half-2026-oil-non-oil-mid-year-report/) projects overall real growth of **20.8 per cent** for the year, with non-oil growth of 10.2 per cent. The World Bank projects **23.7 per cent**. > The lender is 2.9 points more bullish on Guyana than Guyana's own Ministry of Finance. Governments are usually the optimistic party in that pairing. Here the Ministry has pitched below a multilateral, and it did so in September, after the Bank's April number and before its October one. Neither figure is wrong on its face. They rest on different assumptions about production and price in the second half, and the Ministry has already cut its non-oil forecast while leaving the headline high. But a reader comparing the two should know that the more conservative number is the government's. ## What does the gap mean for the rest of the region? That a regional average now describes almost nobody. At 23.7 per cent against 2.5 per cent for the Caribbean without it, Guyana is roughly **nine and a half times** the rest of the region's rate. A CARICOM-wide average that includes Guyana tells a reader very little about Bridgetown, Castries or Kingston, and the Bank has effectively conceded the point by reporting the region twice, with Guyana and without it. That is the arithmetic underneath the week's two tourism proposals. Jamaica's Tourism Minister [proposed a visitor-funded resilience fund](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/caribbean-tourism-resilience-fund-bartlett-visitor-levy-sotic-2026/) because islands carrying 2.5 per cent growth cannot self-insure against a storm that cost 56.7 per cent of one member's output. President Irfaan Ali [told investors they were too laid-back](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/sotic-georgetown-ali-investors-bartlett-levy-guyana-arrivals-2026/) from the one chair in the room attached to a 23.7 per cent economy. The Bank's own prescription is addressed to the slower side: "stronger economic performance is possible where governments pursue sound and durable policies capable of encouraging investment and strengthening market confidence." ## What is the risk to the Guyanese number? That it rests on a barrel the country is still arguing about. The growth is oil, and the terms on which that oil is recovered remain contested. This newspaper reported today that a [US$214.4 million cost recovery dispute has gone to the International Chamber of Commerce](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-exxon-214-million-cost-oil-audit-icc-sole-expert-2026/) without an adjudicator, twenty-five months after the procedure was triggered. Growth of 23.7 per cent and an unresolved question over what the operator may deduct are the same economy seen from two ends. ### What the title card shows Every data point on the article's title card, in text. Source for all: World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update, October 2026, except where stated. \* **23.7 per cent.** Guyana's projected real GDP growth for 2026, the fastest in Latin America and the Caribbean. \* **2.2 per cent.** Projected growth for the Latin America and Caribbean region in 2026, against 2.4 per cent in 2025\. \* **2.5 per cent.** Projected 2026 growth for the Caribbean excluding Guyana, and 3.7 per cent for 2027\. \* **16.3 per cent.** The Bank's April 2026 estimate for Guyana, revised upward by 7.4 points by October. \* **33.8, 43.8 and 19.3 per cent.** Guyana's growth in 2023, 2024 and 2025\. \* **18.7 and 15.3 per cent.** Projected for 2027 and 2028\. \* **20.8 per cent.** Guyana's own projection for 2026 in the Ministry of Finance Mid-Year Report, with non-oil growth of 10.2 per cent. ## Frequently Asked Questions How fast is Guyana's economy growing? The World Bank projects 23.7 per cent in 2026, the fastest in Latin America and the Caribbean, after 19.3 per cent in 2025, 43.8 per cent in 2024 and 33.8 per cent in 2023\. It projects 18.7 per cent in 2027 and 15.3 per cent in 2028. How does that compare with the region? The Bank projects 2.2 per cent for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, and 2.5 per cent for the Caribbean excluding Guyana. Guyana is roughly nine and a half times the latter rate. Why did the forecast change? The Bank's April estimate for Guyana was 16.3 per cent. The October figure is 23.7 per cent, an upward revision of 7.4 percentage points in six months. Does Guyana's government agree? Its Mid-Year Report projects 20.8 per cent for 2026, with non-oil growth of 10.2 per cent, which is 2.9 points below the World Bank's figure. The government is the more conservative of the two. What does the Bank say about the rest of the Caribbean? It identifies Guyana and Suriname as oil-driven exceptions to a more tempered recovery, and notes that tourism-dependent economies are carrying high energy and transportation costs.