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# Suriname Set Conditions. Trinidad Set a Target. Guyana Wrote It Into Law and Still Cut Its Non-Oil Forecast.
- URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/trinidad-hosein-ttma-non-energy-exports-target-suriname-same-day-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-15T14:40:48.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-16T21:05:52.000Z
- Description: On 13 October 2026 the President of Suriname and the economist Roger Hosein in Port of Spain made the same argument: extraction alone will not do it. Suriname attached no measurement, Trinidad has a US$5 billion export target, and Guyana has forty reserved categories in statute.
- Author: Theon Alleyne
- Tags: Wire, business, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, suriname, Energy

**Quick summary:** On 13 October 2026 the President of Suriname and the economist Roger Hosein in Port of Spain made the same argument: extraction alone will not do it. Suriname attached no measurement, Trinidad has a US$5 billion export target, and Guyana has forty reserved categories in statute.

By LCN Business Desk

Two oil and gas economies at opposite ends of the production cycle made the same argument on Tuesday 13 October 2026.

In Paramaribo, President Jennifer Simons told the fourth International Business Conference that extraction on its own is not success, as reported in ["Extraction Alone Is Not Success"](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/suriname-simons-extraction-alone-ibc-guyana-value-chain-caricom-2026/). In Port of Spain, at the Trinidad and Tobago Manufacturers' Association post-budget discussion at the Hyatt Regency, the economist Dr Roger Hosein said the country could not rely on increased natural gas production alone to resolve its structural problems.

Suriname has barely begun producing. Trinidad has been at it for over a century.

## What did the economist actually say?

That more gas will not close the gap on its own.

Hosein argued that even with anticipated gas projects coming on stream, Trinidad and Tobago would continue to face fiscal deficits and foreign exchange constraints without a stronger contribution from the non-energy economy. His prescription was specific.

"We need to augment this energy injection with the effort of the Ministry of Trade, particularly on those three frontiers that I mentioned: goods, services, and the labour force participation," he said.

He traced the structure of the problem to the expansion of the energy sector after Atlantic LNG and the rise in gas production that followed, which he said shifted production and expenditure towards non-tradable goods and services. The foreign exchange constraint he describes, and what the central bank's own strategic plan does not address, were examined in [Trinidad's Central Bank Published a Strategic Plan](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/trinidad-central-bank-strategic-plan-foreign-exchange-absent-2026/). The competition for the gas itself, between export industry and new domestic demand, was examined in [Trinidad Is Weighing Data Centres Against Its Gas Allocation](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/trinidad-data-centres-golconda-gas-allocation-2026/). He also made a point about where activity physically sits. "If you don't understand the geography in good enough detail as to where the economy is located, then you will struggle to hit with the right policy interventions that create the transformations needed."

## What is the number?

US$5 billion by 2030, set by the government and quoted back to it.

Hosein identified the government's US$5 billion export target as a particularly important opportunity, describing it as one of the most forward-thinking proposals he had encountered in budget statements.

The target is the Finance Minister's own. In the 2026/2027 budget presentation, Davendranath Tancoo said: "In Budget 2026 we set a target to generate an additional US$2 billion in non-energy exports by 2027 and US$5 billion by 2030, and there are already encouraging signs of momentum which are already yielding results."

Hosein's response was to accept half of it as a win. "If we only even get 50% of that and give us US$2.5 billion in increase in non-energy exports of goods and services, a billion-star," he said, before setting the condition. "That's the kind of thing that requires drive. It requires focus. No small talk. No political deviation. Just going after it relentlessly with the support of the business community."

| The same argument, two countries, one Tuesday |                                                                                                                                          |
| --------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Suriname, Paramaribo                          | President Jennifer Simons, fourth International Business Conference                                                                      |
| What she set                                  | Four conditions: productive industries, stronger local enterprises, skilled people, benefits reaching communities throughout the country |
| Measurement attached                          | None published                                                                                                                           |
| Trinidad and Tobago, Port of Spain            | Dr Roger Hosein, TTMA post-budget discussion, Hyatt Regency                                                                              |
| What he pressed                               | Non-energy exports, tourism, labour force participation                                                                                  |
| Measurement attached                          | An additional US$2bn in non-energy exports by 2027 and US$5bn by 2030, stated by the Finance Minister                                    |

Sources: Starnieuws, Suriname Herald and the Trinidad Express for the Paramaribo remarks; the Trinidad Express, 14 October 2026, for the Port of Spain remarks and the Finance Minister's budget quotation. The Express also reports the Trade Minister as Satyakama Maharaj, founder of Sacha Cosmetics.

## Why does the difference matter?

Because a condition can be met rhetorically and a target cannot.

Suriname's four conditions are a standard. Nothing published alongside them says who measures local enterprise strength, skills or distribution, on what index, or by when. Trinidad's is a figure with two dates against it, which can be missed in public.

That is not a judgement about which government is more serious. It is a statement about what each has made checkable. A country that names US$5 billion by 2030 can be held to US$5 billion by 2030, including by an economist standing at a manufacturers' association lectern doing exactly that.

## What does it mean for Guyana?

Guyana has already done the thing both of them are arguing about, and in the hardest form of the three.

Not a condition in a speech or a figure in a budget presentation. A statute. The Local Content Act reserves forty categories of service work for companies carrying 51 per cent Guyanese beneficial ownership, Guyanese in 75 per cent of senior positions and 90 per cent of other roles, with fines to G$50 million. Catering is reserved at 90 per cent, crewing at 50, ship and rig chandlery at 25, aviation support at 20, dredging at 10, engineering at 5\. It is the most demanding local content statute in the region by a distance.

Two things sit against it.

The schedule does not reach the most capital-intensive work offshore. No category covers offshore vessel provision, anchor handling, marine transport or subsea services, as set out in [Guyana Reserves a Fifth of Offshore Aviation Support for Local Firms](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-local-content-act-schedule-offshore-vessels-gap-2026/).

And compliance cannot be checked from outside. More than forty operators and contractors signed 2026 local content plans at a ceremony on 18 June 2026\. No exact number has been published, no list of approved companies exists on any government site, and the register is a login portal that tells an unauthenticated visitor they do not have permission to view it, as reported in [Guyana Approved Local Content Plans for More Than Forty Companies](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-local-content-plans-2026-no-public-register-2026/).

## And the number that would show it working?

It moved the wrong way.

Non-oil growth in Guyana was 10.1 per cent in the first half of 2026, against 14.0 per cent a year earlier. The Ministry of Finance raised the whole-economy forecast to 20.8 per cent and cut the non-oil forecast from 10.8 to 10.2\. Petroleum and gas reached 78.9 per cent of real GDP, from 68.1 per cent in 2023\. Those figures are from the Mid-Year Report, examined in [Guyana's Economy Grew 33.3 Per Cent](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-gdp-first-half-2026-oil-non-oil-mid-year-report/).

There is a second reading, and it is the one that should travel furthest in Georgetown. The constraint Hosein puts at the centre of his argument is foreign exchange, and Guyana has it already. A US$200 million backlog in the banks was reported in [Guyana's Foreign Exchange Backlog](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-foreign-exchange-backlog-us200m-banks-asgar-ally-2026/), and the complaints run back two years, as set out in [Two Years of US Dollar Shortage](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-us-dollar-shortage-two-years-business-complaints-record-2026/). Those conditions coexist with petroleum at 78.9 per cent of real GDP and exports measured in the volumes set out in [Guyana's December Loading Schedule](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-december-loading-schedule-one-million-barrels-exports-2026/). Production has not resolved the currency position, which is the specific thing Hosein warns more gas will not fix in Trinidad.

So of the three, the country with the strongest instrument is the one whose published trend is moving furthest from what all three say they want. The statute is law and the schedule has percentages in it. The share of the economy that is not oil is still falling.

Hosein's warning comes from the far end of the cycle, a century in. President Simons made hers before the revenue arrives. Guyana is between them and has legislated, which neither of the others has done. The two have already tried to do business with each other on the gas itself and did not reach terms, as reported in [Guyana and Trinidad Reach No Agreement on Gas](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-trinidad-gas-talks-no-agreement-2026/). And the regional backdrop both are speaking into, in which the Caribbean sits far below the Latin American average, was examined in [The IMF Put Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3 Per Cent](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/imf-weo-october-2026-caribbean-share-growth-spread/).

What none of the three events settles is whether writing it down changes the number.

### What the title card shows

Every data point on the article's title card, in text.

- **13 October 2026.** The Tuesday on which both sets of remarks were made, in Paramaribo and in Port of Spain.
- **US$5 billion by 2030.** The non-energy export target stated by Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo in the 2026/2027 budget presentation, with an additional US$2 billion by 2027.
- **US$2.5 billion.** Half that increase, which Hosein said would still represent a significant improvement.
- **3 frontiers.** Goods, services and labour force participation, the areas Hosein named for the Ministry of Trade.
- **4 conditions.** The test President Simons set in Paramaribo, with no published measurement attached.
- **40 categories.** The service categories Guyana's Local Content Act reserves for companies with 51 per cent Guyanese beneficial ownership.
- **10.2 per cent.** Guyana's full-year non-oil growth forecast after the Mid-Year Report cut it from 10.8, while the whole-economy forecast rose to 20.8.

## Frequently Asked Questions

What did Dr Roger Hosein say?

That Trinidad and Tobago cannot rely on increased natural gas production alone to resolve its structural economic problems, and that even with anticipated gas projects it would continue to face fiscal deficits and foreign exchange constraints without a stronger non-energy contribution. He spoke on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at the TTMA post-budget discussion at the Hyatt Regency in Port of Spain.

What is the US$5 billion target?

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo said in the 2026/2027 budget presentation that the government set a target in Budget 2026 to generate an additional US$2 billion in non-energy exports by 2027 and US$5 billion by 2030.

How does this relate to Suriname?

President Jennifer Simons made a comparable argument in Paramaribo on the same day, telling the fourth International Business Conference that extraction alone is not success. Her four conditions carry no published target, index or timetable.

Is Trinidad's target being met?

The Finance Minister said there are encouraging signs of momentum already yielding results. On the public record this newspaper can find, no published progress figure against the 2027 or 2030 dates accompanies that statement.

What has Guyana done that the other two have not?

Legislated. The Local Content Act reserves forty categories of service work for companies with 51 per cent Guyanese beneficial ownership, Guyanese in 75 per cent of senior positions and 90 per cent of other roles, with fines to G$50 million. No category covers offshore vessel provision, anchor handling, marine transport or subsea services, and the register of approved local content plans is a login portal rather than a public record.

What is Hosein's structural argument?

That the expansion of the energy sector after Atlantic LNG, and the rise in gas production that followed, shifted production and expenditure towards non-tradable goods and services, distorting production, employment and foreign exchange demand.