> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The IMF Put Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3 Per Cent. The Caribbean Is 3.9 Per Cent of the Output Behind That Figure. - URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/imf-weo-october-2026-caribbean-share-growth-spread/ - Published: 2026-10-13T14:36:22.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-16T21:06:18.000Z - Description: The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects Latin America and the Caribbean at 2.3 per cent. The fifteen Caribbean economies it covers are 3.9 per cent of that region's output, and their growth rates span 24 points, from Guyana at 22.3 per cent to Haiti at minus 1.7. - Author: Theon Alleyne - Tags: business, Caribbean, Economy, Guyana, Jamaica **Quick summary:** The International Monetary Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, published on 13 October, projects Latin America and the Caribbean to grow 2.3 per cent this year. The fifteen Caribbean economies it covers are 3.9 per cent of that region's output. Across them the range runs from Guyana at 22.3 per cent to Haiti at minus 1.7. By LCN Business Desk Latin America and the Caribbean grows 2.3 per cent this year, against a world slowing to 3.1\. That is the regional line in the [October 2026 World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/10/13/world-economic-outlook-october-2026?ref=lacaribenanews.com), released on Tuesday under the title "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices". Underneath it sit fifteen Caribbean economies whose growth rates this year span 24 percentage points. ## What does the 2.3 per cent actually measure? Mainland Latin America, almost entirely. The Fund's regional aggregate is weighted by output, and on its own figures the fifteen Caribbean economies in the dataset produce US$321.7 billion this year against US$7,898.9 billion for seventeen mainland Latin American economies. | 2026 nominal GDP | US$bn | Share | | ------------------------------------------- | --------- | -------- | | Fifteen Caribbean economies | **321.7** | **3.9%** | | Seventeen mainland Latin American economies | 7,898.9 | 96.1% | | Combined | 8,220.6 | 100% | Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026, series NGDPD. LCN's arithmetic on the Fund's figures. Caribbean: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago. Mainland: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela. Brazil alone, at US$2,654.8 billion, is 8.3 times the entire Caribbean group. Mexico is US$2,176.2 billion. Brazil grows 2.2 per cent this year and Mexico 1.5 per cent, and the regional figure sits at 2.3. > A number reported across the Caribbean as the region's outlook is, by weight, ninety-six per cent a reading of somewhere else. ## How far apart are the Caribbean economies? Twenty-four percentage points, top to bottom. | Economy | Growth 2026 | Inflation 2026 | Govt debt, % GDP | | ----------------------------- | ----------- | -------------- | ---------------- | | **Guyana** | **22.3** | 4.1 | 25.3 | | Dominican Republic | 4.6 | 5.1 | 57.2 | | Suriname | 4.0 | 10.5 | 85.1 | | Grenada | 3.9 | 1.7 | 66.8 | | Dominica | 3.1 | 2.7 | 99.7 | | Bahamas | 2.5 | 3.8 | 70.2 | | Antigua and Barbuda | 2.4 | 3.6 | 66.8 | | St Vincent and the Grenadines | 2.3 | 2.7 | 111.6 | | Belize | 1.9 | 3.5 | 64.6 | | Barbados | 1.8 | 2.6 | 93.8 | | St Kitts and Nevis | 1.8 | 3.6 | 65.1 | | St Lucia | 1.2 | 2.9 | 78.1 | | Trinidad and Tobago | 0.2 | 0.8 | 84.6 | | **Jamaica** | **0.0** | 5.9 | 64.3 | | **Haiti** | **\-1.7** | 21.5 | 10.5 | Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026. Two economies sit on the regional number, St Vincent and the Grenadines at 2.3 and Antigua and Barbuda at 2.4\. Three sit below one per cent. St Vincent carries debt of 111.6 per cent of output while growing at exactly the regional rate, which is the kind of thing an average is built to hide. ## Why is Jamaica at zero? Hurricane Melissa, and the Fund is the most optimistic of the three institutions that have published a number. The [World Bank's Macro Poverty Outlook](https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/e408a7e21ba62d843bdd90dc37e61b57-0500032021/related/mpo-jam.pdf?ref=lacaribenanews.com) states that Jamaican "economic activity is projected to contract by 0.8 percent in 2026 as the damages of Hurricane Melissa continues to affect tourism". Its table carries 2025 at 0.2 per cent and 2027 at 3.0. Jamaica's own statisticians have already measured part of the year. The Planning Institute of Jamaica told its [quarterly press briefing](https://www.pioj.gov.jm/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/DGs-QPB%5F31%5F1-Speaking-Notes%5F18-08-26.pdf?ref=lacaribenanews.com) on 18 August that "the Jamaican economy recorded an estimated contraction of 2.9% compared with the corresponding quarter, April to June 2025", reflecting "the continued downturn in most industries due to the lingering impact of Hurricane Melissa". | Source | Jamaica 2026 | Kind | | --------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | -------- | | Planning Institute of Jamaica, 18 August 2026 | **\-2.9%** (April to June quarter) | measured | | World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook | **\-0.8%** (full year) | forecast | | IMF, World Economic Outlook, 13 October 2026 | **0.0%** (full year) | forecast | The Planning Institute also reported alumina production down 30.8 per cent on "technical challenges associated with damage caused by Hurricane Melissa", with the alumina capacity utilisation rate at 27.3 per cent, down 12.1 percentage points. ## What does the forecast not know about Trinidad? What happened in the eleven days before it published. The Fund states on its own report page that the projections "are based on statistical information available through October 1, 2026, and may not always reflect the latest published data." Trinidad and Tobago is carried at 0.2 per cent for this year. After that cutoff, Nutrien announced on 5 October that it would indefinitely shut its Trinidad Nitrogen operations at Point Lisas; Proman completed the retrenchment of about 100 workers on 8 October; and the Finance Minister presented the FY2027 budget on 12 October, pegged to a natural gas netback price of US$5.00 per million British thermal units. None of that is in the number. Trinidad's foreign exchange position, and the central bank's treatment of it, is set out in [Trinidad's Central Bank Published a Five-Year Plan](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/trinidad-central-bank-strategic-plan-foreign-exchange-absent-2026/). ## Which Caribbean countries does the Outlook not cover at all? Eight, checked one by one. Cuba, Curaçao, the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, Sint Maarten, Montserrat and Anguilla have no entry in the dataset. Aruba is carried, at 3.7 per cent, and Puerto Rico at minus 0.1 per cent. Cuba's absence is the largest. The Fund's flagship forecast describes a region without reference to one of its most populous countries. ## What does the Fund say about economies of this kind? One sentence on the report's own landing page, and it describes most of the Caribbean. > "Energy-importing economies outside the technology value chain face the most difficult outlook." The Fund expands on the mechanism in its Chapter 1 summary, which identifies a widening "divide between economies benefiting from the technology upcycle or favorable terms of trade and those facing higher import bills and weaker demand". Global headline inflation rises to 4.7 per cent this year. Haiti carries inflation of 21.5 per cent and Suriname 10.5 per cent, against Trinidad and Tobago at 0.8 per cent and Grenada at 1.7. ## Where does Guyana sit in this? At the top of the table and outside the pattern. Guyana grows 22.3 per cent this year and 16.8 per cent next, more than seven times the global rate. Its general government debt is 25.3 per cent of output, the second lowest in the group after Haiti, and its GDP per capita reaches US$38,572 this year, behind the Bahamas at US$43,858 and ahead of Barbados at US$28,245\. On the Fund's own projections the Bahamas stays ahead through 2027, at US$45,473 against Guyana's US$40,806. Guyana is an energy exporter in a region of energy importers, which is the divide the Fund's own sentence turns on. The Fund's fuller assessment of Guyana came in its Article IV papers this month, reported in [The IMF Concluded Guyana's Article IV by Lapse of Time](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-imf-article-iv-2026-lapse-of-time-cost-oil-audits/) and in [What Guyana's Authorities Argued Back](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-imf-staff-report-fiscal-anchor-authorities-views/). The sovereign fund that receives the oil revenue is examined in [Guyana's Natural Resource Fund Holds Its Money in an Overnight Account](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-nrf-overnight-account-new-york-fed-mandate/). ### What the title card shows Every data point on the article's title card, in text. Source for all: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 2026, except where stated. \* **2.3 per cent.** Projected growth for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026\. The world grows 3.1 per cent. \* **3.9 per cent.** The fifteen Caribbean economies' share of the region's 2026 output, US$321.7 billion of US$8,220.6 billion. LCN's arithmetic on the Fund's figures, with both country lists named in the article. \* **24 points.** The spread in 2026 growth across those fifteen economies, from Guyana at 22.3 per cent to Haiti at minus 1.7\. \* **8.3 times.** Brazil's 2026 output, US$2,654.8 billion, as a multiple of the whole Caribbean group. \* **0.0 per cent.** Jamaica's projected 2026 growth. The World Bank projects minus 0.8 per cent, and the Planning Institute of Jamaica measured a 2.9 per cent contraction in the April to June quarter. \* **1 October 2026.** The data cutoff. Nutrien's Point Lisas shutdown, Proman's retrenchment and Trinidad's budget all fall after it. \* **8 jurisdictions.** Caribbean economies with no entry in the dataset, including Cuba. ## Frequently Asked Questions What did the IMF forecast for the Caribbean in October 2026? The World Economic Outlook does not publish a Caribbean aggregate. It projects Latin America and the Caribbean together at 2.3 per cent for 2026, and gives figures for fifteen Caribbean economies individually, ranging from Guyana at 22.3 per cent to Haiti at minus 1.7 per cent. Why does the regional figure not describe Caribbean conditions? Because it is weighted by output and the Caribbean is 3.9 per cent of that output. Brazil alone is 8.3 times the size of the fifteen Caribbean economies combined, so the regional number is overwhelmingly a reading of mainland Latin America. What is the IMF's projection for Jamaica? Zero per cent growth in 2026, recovering to 2.4 per cent in 2027\. The World Bank projects a contraction of 0.8 per cent for the same year, and Jamaica's Planning Institute measured a 2.9 per cent contraction in the April to June quarter, attributing it to the lingering impact of Hurricane Melissa. Does the forecast account for the Point Lisas closures in Trinidad? No. The Fund states its projections rest on information available through 1 October 2026\. Nutrien's indefinite shutdown was announced on 5 October, Proman completed its retrenchment on 8 October and the FY2027 budget was presented on 12 October. Which Caribbean countries are missing from the dataset? Cuba, Curaçao, the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, Sint Maarten, Montserrat and Anguilla have no entry. Aruba and Puerto Rico are covered.