> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Guyana Says 11.6 Billion Barrels. The Operator Says Just Under 11 Billion. - URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-oil-reserves-stabroek-11-billion-barrels-estimates-differ-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-03T12:31:43.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-04T05:16:30.000Z - Description: Reports said Guyana's oil reserves had fallen below 11 billion barrels. The operator's estimate has not fallen, and has not moved since April 2022. Four parties publish a figure for the same block, and the Government of Guyana's is the highest of them. - Author: Theon Alleyne - Tags: Petroleum, Guyana, Energy, Analysis **Quick summary:** Reports this week said Guyana's oil reserves have fallen below 11 billion barrels. The operator's estimate has not fallen. ExxonMobil has put the Stabroek block at just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels since April 2022\. Its partners and the Government of Guyana each publish a different number, and the Government's is the highest of them. By LCN Business Desk Kaieteur News reported on 2 October that [Guyana's oil reserves had dropped below 11 billion barrels](https://kaieteurnewsonline.com/2026/10/02/guyanas-oil-reserves-drop-below-11b-barrels-exxon-says/?ref=lacaribenanews.com). The figure the report rests on has not dropped. It has not changed at all for four and a half years. What changed is production. ExxonMobil announced on 28 September that it and its co-venturers had [produced the billionth barrel from the Stabroek block](https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/guyana/guyana-newsroom/2026/one-billion-barrels-guyanas-remarkable-journey-continues?ref=lacaribenanews.com), "less than seven years after first production began in December 2019". Subtract a billion produced from an estimate of just under eleven billion and about ten billion remains. That is arithmetic, not a revision, and La Caribeña News examined what the first billion paid in [Guyana's Oil Fund Has Taken In US$10.5 Billion Since 2020](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-billionth-barrel-nrf-receipts-article-32-stability-2026/). Four parties hold a view on how much oil is in that block. All four have published it. No two of them agree. ## Has the operator's estimate actually changed? No, and the record is dated three times over. ExxonMobil's own Guyana project page has carried the words "the gross recoverable resource for the Stabroek Block is now estimated to be nearly 11 billion oil equivalent barrels" since [April 2022](https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/guyana/operations/guyana-project-overview?ref=lacaribenanews.com), following the Lukanani-1 discovery. In October 2024, at a press conference, ExxonMobil Guyana president Alistair Routledge said "our number remains a little under 11 billion oil equivalent barrels". In September 2026 the company's billionth-barrel release described "an estimated resource base of just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels and plans for up to eight offshore developments by 2030". April 2022, October 2024, September 2026\. Nearly, a little under, just under. The same number, three times, across fifty-three months. That period was not quiet. The block went from the roughly thirty-five discoveries listed on that project page to a count reported above fifty by late 2025\. Drilling continued throughout, and the operator was still [turning up new leads with machine learning](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/exxonmobil-guyana-stabroek-contract-royalty-ai-leads/) as recently as this August. The public estimate did not move. ## Why is "reserves" the wrong word for it? Because the eleven billion figure is not a reserves number, and the operator has said so plainly. Routledge's explanation, quoted by Kaieteur News, draws the line: "resource is estimated, as ultimately recoverable... It doesn't move to proved until you fund a project that can develop that resource." A resource estimate is a technical view of what might ultimately be recovered. Proved reserves are the subset tied to a funded, sanctioned development. The two are different quantities with different purposes, and a headline that reports a fall in "reserves" by reference to a resource estimate is comparing neither to itself. ## Do the four parties agree on the number? They do not, and the spread runs in one direction. | Party | Interest | Its own figure for Stabroek | Said by, and where | | ------------------------------------ | ---------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | **Government of Guyana** | host state | **11.6 billion**, up 600 million | Vickram Bharrat, Minister of Natural Resources, August 2024: "We have moved to 11.6 billion now" | | **Chevron** | 30% | "more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered recoverable resource" | company release, 18 July 2025 | | **Hess**, before Chevron acquired it | 30% | higher than the operator's estimate: "Our number is higher" | John Hess, chief executive, Goldman Sachs Research conference, January 2025 | | **CNOOC** | 25% | "Total recoverable resources of approximately 11 billion boe, and 8 projects will be in production by 2030" | 2024 Annual Report | | **ExxonMobil Guyana**, the operator | 45% | "a little under 11 billion"; "just under 11 billion" | Routledge, press conference, October 2024; company release, September 2026 | **The company that drills the wells publishes the lowest figure. The state that owns the resource publishes the highest.** Between the Minister's 11.6 billion and the operator's just under 11 billion sits a gap of roughly 600 to 700 million barrels, which is more than half of everything Guyana has produced in its entire oil history to date. The partners' disagreement is not a matter of interpretation at the margin either. Chevron's [completion of the Hess acquisition](https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2025/q3/chevron-completes-acquisition-of-hess-corporation?ref=lacaribenanews.com) on 18 July 2025 described the block it had just bought into as holding "more than 11 billion". Nine months earlier the operator of that same block had said a little under. Chevron did not inherit the view by accident: John Hess had told a Goldman Sachs conference in January 2025 that his number was higher than the operator's, and Chevron took the position with the asset. Chevron is in the block at all because ExxonMobil tried to keep it out and failed. ExxonMobil filed arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris claiming a right of first refusal over the Hess stake, arguing the clause covered the sale of the whole company and not merely the asset. The tribunal rejected the claim, and [ExxonMobil accepted Chevron as its Stabroek partner](https://www.rigzone.com/news/exxonmobil%5Faccepts%5Fchevron%5Fas%5Fstabroek%5Fpartner%5Fafter%5Farbitration%5Floss-21-jul-2025-181211-article/?ref=lacaribenanews.com) days later. So one effect of that ruling is that the largest non-operating interest in Guyana's oil now sits with a company that says publicly there is more oil in the block than the operator says there is. ## Why does the gap matter to Guyana rather than to the companies? Because the state's income is a function of barrels, and the estimate is what every projection is built on. Guyana takes a royalty of 2 per cent, against the [6.25 per cent Suriname signed next door](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-suriname-oil-contract-royalty-comparison/), and half of profit oil. Those shares apply to barrels actually lifted, so no estimate changes what the state receives this year. What an estimate changes is planning: how long the Natural Resource Fund is expected to receive anything, how many developments the eight-by-2030 programme implies, which already turns on [two projects that are not yet approved](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/exxonmobil-ring-fencing-stabroek-profit-share-guyana-2026/), and what the country is told it can count on. Those receipts pass through the Consolidated Fund into the national budget, which is where they become lines like the [G$100 million set aside to start an Aviation Centre of Excellence](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-aviation-centre-of-excellence-partner-bvi-runway-bids-2026/). The four vessels now producing run at roughly 900,000 to 920,000 barrels a day. The fifth and largest, the Errea Wittu, [arrived in August](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-s-fifth-fpso-errea-wittu-arrives-eyes-1m-barrels-dail-2026/) and takes Guyana past a million barrels a day for the first time. MODEC built it for the Uaru development, which ExxonMobil's September release still described as expected to start by the end of this year. Whiptail follows in 2027 and Hammerhead in 2029. A million barrels a day is roughly 365 million barrels a year. Against about ten billion remaining of the operator's estimate, that is somewhere near twenty-seven years, and it shortens with every vessel added. The difference between the Minister's figure and the operator's is close to two years of production at that rate. None of the four figures has been independently audited in public. The operator's is the one a reader is most likely to encounter, it is the lowest of the four, and it is the only one that has been restated three times without moving. ### What the title card shows 11.6 billion barrels: the figure given by Vickram Bharrat, Minister of Natural Resources, in August 2024, described as an increase of 600 million. Just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels: ExxonMobil's estimated resource base for the Stabroek block, as stated in its release of 28 September 2026, and as "nearly 11 billion" on its project page since April 2022, and as "a little under 11 billion" by its Guyana president in October 2024\. More than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered recoverable resource: Chevron's description of the block in its release of 18 July 2025\. Approximately 11 billion boe: CNOOC's 2024 Annual Report. 1 billion barrels: cumulative Stabroek production announced by ExxonMobil on 28 September 2026, less than seven years after first production in December 2019\. 45, 30 and 25 per cent: the interests of ExxonMobil Guyana, Chevron and CNOOC. 900,000 to 920,000 barrels a day: the rate of the four vessels now producing, with the fifth, the Errea Wittu, taking Guyana past a million for the first time. 600 million barrels: the gap between the Minister's 11.6 billion and the operator's just under 11 billion. Eight: offshore developments planned by 2030\. 2 per cent: the royalty under Article 15.6 of the 2016 Petroleum Agreement. ## Frequently Asked Questions Have Guyana's oil reserves fallen below 11 billion barrels? The operator's estimate has not fallen. ExxonMobil has described the Stabroek block as nearly, a little under, or just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels in April 2022, October 2024 and September 2026\. What is new is that a billion barrels have now been produced, so roughly ten billion of the estimate remains. How much oil does Guyana actually have? There is no single agreed figure. The Government of Guyana said 11.6 billion barrels in August 2024\. Chevron says more than 11 billion. CNOOC says approximately 11 billion. ExxonMobil, which operates the block, says just under 11 billion. None has been independently audited in public. What is the difference between a resource and a reserve? A resource estimate is a technical view of what might ultimately be recovered. Proved reserves are the part tied to a funded, approved development. ExxonMobil Guyana's president put it this way: "It doesn't move to proved until you fund a project that can develop that resource." Why does Chevron hold the view that Hess held? Chevron acquired Hess, completing on 18 July 2025 after an International Chamber of Commerce tribunal rejected ExxonMobil's claim to a right of first refusal over the Guyana stake. Hess's chief executive had said in January 2025 that his estimate was higher than the operator's, and Chevron's own release described the block as holding more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Does a higher estimate mean more money for Guyana now? No. Royalty and profit oil are paid on barrels actually lifted, so no estimate changes this year's receipts. An estimate shapes planning rather than payments: how many developments are expected, and for how long the Natural Resource Fund can expect inflows. ### Disclosure Theon Alleyne, the proprietor of La Caribeña News, is a director of the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association, whose membership includes firms that supply the petroleum sector. Figures attributed to ExxonMobil, Chevron and CNOOC are taken from each company's own published statements, as dated above. The figures attributed to Hess and to the Minister of Natural Resources are as reported by Kaieteur News, which carried both. Royalty references are to the Stabroek Block Petroleum Agreement made by way of deed on 27 June 2016.