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# Guyana's Oil Fund Has Taken In US$10.5 Billion Since 2020. The Royalty Line Is US$1.3 Billion of It.
- URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-billionth-barrel-nrf-receipts-article-32-stability-2026/
- Published: 2026-09-29T13:26:05.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-06T21:30:45.000Z
- Description: ExxonMobil says the Stabroek block has produced its billionth barrel. The Bank of Guyana reports the Natural Resource Fund has taken in US$10,518.19 million since inception, of which royalties are US$1,335.25 million.
- Author: Theon Alleyne
- Tags: Energy, Guyana, Analysis

**Quick summary:** ExxonMobil said on 28 September that the Stabroek block has produced its billionth barrel. The Bank of Guyana reports the Natural Resource Fund has taken in US$10,518.19 million since inception, of which royalties are US$1,335.25 million. Article 32 of the 2016 agreement bars the Government from requiring renegotiation without the contractor's written consent.

By LCN Business Desk

The milestone was first put in public in Georgetown, forty-eight days before the company's corporate announcement. ExxonMobil Guyana president Alistair Routledge told the launch of the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo 2027, on 11 August, that "depending on how you count the barrels we may already have surpassed a billion barrels of production in Guyana. The first billion barrels of production. Quite a feat in such a short space of time."

On 28 September the company confirmed it, "less than seven years after first production began in December 2019". What began with one producing asset is now four offshore developments on the Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and ONE GUYANA, which together carry installed capacity of more than 900,000 barrels a day. Daily production reached that mark in November 2025\. Uaru is expected to start by the end of this year, Whiptail in 2027 and Hammerhead in 2029, and the company puts the block's resource base at just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels with up to eight developments planned by 2030\. That figure has not moved since April 2022, and the Government of Guyana, Chevron and CNOOC each state a different one, examined in [Guyana Says 11.6 Billion Barrels](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-oil-reserves-stabroek-11-billion-barrels-estimates-differ-2026/).

## What has the first billion barrels paid?

The state's own account is published quarterly. The Bank of Guyana's report for the quarter to 30 June 2026 records that "since its inception, the Fund has accounted for inflows of G$1,911,515.20 million (US$9,167.94 million) from 117 lifts of profit oil, G$278,399.49 million (US$1,335.25 million) from royalties, and G$3,127.5 (US$15 million) from signature bonus".

| Inflow to the Natural Resource Fund since inception | US$ million   |
| --------------------------------------------------- | ------------- |
| Profit oil, from 117 lifts                          | 9,167.94      |
| Royalties                                           | 1,335.25      |
| Signature bonus                                     | 15.00         |
| **Total**                                           | **10,518.19** |

Every figure is the Bank of Guyana's own, from its Natural Resource Fund Quarterly Report for June 2026.

Of that total, US$6,678.78 million has been transferred to the Consolidated Fund and spent through the national budget, where it becomes lines such as the [G$100 million to start an Aviation Centre of Excellence](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-aviation-centre-of-excellence-partner-bvi-runway-bids-2026/). The National Assembly approved US$2,374.33 million for withdrawal in 2026, and the US$620 million moved in the second quarter represented 26.11 per cent of it. The Fund's market value stood at US$4,294.24 million at 30 June.

The Bank also publishes what the oil actually fetched. Its measure, "average oil price based on profit oil inflows", was US$102.17 a barrel in the second quarter of 2026 against US$66.75 in the same quarter of 2025, a rise of 53.06 per cent. That is not the Brent price, which the Bank reports separately at US$72.92 at 30 June 2026 against US$67.61 a year earlier. The realised measure settles lifts priced earlier, so the two series do not describe the same moment.

The royalty line is the smaller number for a reason that is in the contract. Article 15.6 sets "a royalty of two percent (2%) of all Petroleum produced and sold". Suriname next door signed 6.25 per cent, set out in [Guyana's Oil Royalty Is 2%. Suriname Next Door Signed 6.25%.](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-suriname-oil-contract-royalty-comparison/), and a gold mine at Omai would pay four times the rate, in [A Gold Mine at Omai Would Pay Four Times the Royalty](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/omai-gold-royalty-versus-oil-psa-guyana-2026/).

## Why can the terms not simply be reopened?

Because the agreement says so, in terms that name the act. Article 32.1 of the 2016 Petroleum Agreement provides that the Government "shall not amend, modify, rescind, terminate, declare invalid or unenforceable, require renegotiation of, compel replacement or substitution, or otherwise seek to avoid, alter, or limit this Agreement without the prior written consent of Contractor".

The routes around it are closed in the next clause. Article 32.2 bars the Government from applying "any new taxes whatsoever, any new royalty, duties, fees, charges, value-added tax (VAT) or other imposts". Article 32.3 reaches changes in Guyanese law "whether the change is specific to the Agreement, the Contractor or of general application", and where such a change has a materially adverse effect the Government "shall promptly take any and all affirmative actions to restore the lost or impaired economic benefits to Contractor".

> A general law, passed for the whole country, is caught. If it costs the contractor money, the state must make it whole.

Article 32.4 sets the remedy. The contractor may go to arbitration, and there "the arbitral tribunal is authorized to modify the Agreement to re-establish the economic benefits" to the contractor.

Guyana has written the same protection into mining, as this newspaper reported in [Guyana Has Promised Five Mining Companies That If the Law Changes, the State Pays](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-mineral-agreement-stability-clause-local-content-mining-2026/).

## What have other states done, and what did it cost them?

The record divides by method, and the division is sharper than the debate usually allows.

States that took the asset paid for it. Venezuela expropriated ConocoPhillips' interests in three projects in 2007\. An ICSID tribunal awarded more than US$8.7 billion plus interest on 8 March 2019, and on 22 January 2025 an annulment committee dismissed Venezuela's application in full and left the award standing. A further US$1.33 billion was awarded against PDVSA in separate proceedings.

Ecuador revoked Occidental's operating concession and was ordered in 2012 to pay about US$1.77 billion, then the largest investment treaty award made. That award did not survive intact. An ICSID annulment committee partially annulled it on 2 November 2015 for manifest excess of powers and cut it by more than US$700 million, to about US$1 billion.

States that raised their take by legislation kept their projects. Israel is the closest case to Guyana's, because it reached gas that had already been found. A committee chaired by Eytan Sheshinski was appointed in 2010 and published its final recommendations in January 2011\. The Knesset passed the Tax on Petroleum Profits Law on 30 March 2011, lifting the state's share of gas profits from about 25 per cent, then among the lowest anywhere, to more than 50 per cent in the near term and as high as 62 per cent later. It applied to Tamar, discovered in 2009\. The companies ran a public campaign warning that retroactive taxation would drive investment out of the country. They lost the argument, and Tamar was developed through to first production in 2013.

| State           | What it did                                                                                                  | What followed                                                                                                    |
| --------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Venezuela, 2007 | Expropriated three project interests                                                                         | US$8.7bn plus interest to ConocoPhillips, awarded 2019 and upheld on annulment in 2025\. US$1.33bn against PDVSA |
| Ecuador, 2006   | Revoked an operating concession                                                                              | About US$1.77bn in 2012, cut to about US$1bn on partial annulment in 2015                                        |
| Israel, 2011    | Raised the state's share of gas profits from about 25% to more than 50%, reaching a field discovered in 2009 | Development continued; Tamar produced from 2013                                                                  |
| Tanzania, 2017  | Restricted stabilisation clauses by statute; royalty on gold from 4 to 6%                                    | Settlement with Barrick in 2019: US$300m and a 16% free carry                                                    |
| DR Congo, 2018  | Royalties raised, up to 10% on strategic minerals; stability window cut to five years                        | Code stands                                                                                                      |

Neither of the states that legislated kept its position whole. Israel exempted Tamar's owners from the levy until they had recovered twice their investment. Tanzania's 2019 settlement restored international arbitration and lifted part of the concentrate export ban, both of which its own 2017 laws had removed.

## What changes without anyone renegotiating?

The cost bank, and it is already moving. The same Bank of Guyana report records that "Guyana's share of profit oil is expected to increase, as the cost bank for recoverable expenses by the Stabroek block operators is likely to be recovered sooner than previously anticipated".

Article 11.2 allows the contractor to recover costs from up to "seventy-five percent (75%) of the total production" in any month. What is left is profit oil, split fifty-fifty under Article 11.4\. As the recoverable cost balance falls, more of each barrel becomes profit oil, and half of that is the state's. Guyana's share reached a record this year, examined in [Guyana's Share of Its Own Oil Hit a Record](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/guyana-stabroek-cost-recovery-errea-wittu-2026/).

The other lever applies to projects not yet approved rather than to the agreement already signed. Whether costs from one development may be set against the profits of another is the ring-fencing question, examined against the record of nine countries in [It Only Changes the Timing Holds If Every Project Succeeds](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/ring-fencing-oil-gas-evidence-ghana-uganda-norway-guyana-2026/), and the arithmetic of two unapproved projects in [Guyana Waited Six Years for 39.8 Per Cent](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/exxonmobil-ring-fencing-stabroek-profit-share-guyana-2026/).

### What the title card shows

US$10,518.19 million: total inflows to the Natural Resource Fund since inception, being US$9,167.94 million of profit oil from 117 lifts, US$1,335.25 million of royalties and US$15 million of signature bonus. US$6,678.78 million: transferred to the Consolidated Fund since inception. US$102.17: the Bank's average oil price based on profit oil inflows for the second quarter of 2026, against US$66.75 a year earlier. US$72.92: Brent at 30 June 2026, which the Bank reports separately. All from the Bank of Guyana, Natural Resource Fund Quarterly Report, June 2026\. 2 per cent: the royalty set by Article 15.6 of the 2016 Petroleum Agreement. 75 per cent: the monthly cost recovery ceiling in Article 11.2\. 50/50: the profit oil split in Article 11.4\. 117: lifts of profit oil to 30 June 2026\. 11 August 2026: the date ExxonMobil Guyana's president first said publicly, in Georgetown, that the billion barrels may already have been passed.

## Frequently Asked Questions

How much has Guyana received from the first billion barrels?

US$10,518.19 million in total inflows to the Natural Resource Fund since inception, on the Bank of Guyana's June 2026 quarterly report, of which US$6,678.78 million has been transferred to the Consolidated Fund and spent.

Why is the royalty such a small share of it?

Because Article 15.6 of the 2016 Petroleum Agreement sets the royalty at 2 per cent of all petroleum produced and sold. Royalties account for US$1,335.25 million of receipts against US$9,167.94 million of profit oil.

Can the Government renegotiate the Stabroek agreement?

Not without the contractor's written consent. Article 32.1 bars the Government from requiring renegotiation, and Article 32.2 bars new taxes, royalties, duties, fees, charges or VAT. Article 32.3 extends to changes in law of general application, and requires the Government to restore any economic benefit lost.

Have other countries raised their take on resources already discovered?

Israel did. A law passed on 30 March 2011 lifted the state's share of natural gas profits above 50 per cent and applied to the Tamar field, discovered in 2009\. The companies campaigned against it, lost, and developed the field, which produced from 2013.

Will Guyana's share rise without any change to the contract?

The Bank of Guyana's report says Guyana's share of profit oil is expected to increase as the operators' cost bank is recovered sooner than previously anticipated. Under Article 11.2 cost recovery is capped at 75 per cent of monthly production, and what remains is split evenly under Article 11.4.

### Disclosure

Theon Alleyne, the proprietor of La Caribeña News, is a director of the Guyana Manufacturing and Services Association, whose membership includes firms that supply the petroleum sector.