> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Antigua Budgeted EC$120 Million From Passports This Year. Its Entire Projected Surplus Is EC$69.5 Million. - URL: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/antigua-cip-120-million-2026-budget-against-69-5-million-surplus-2026/ - Published: 2026-10-30T15:27:51.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-01T12:20:09.000Z - Description: Antigua and Barbuda's 2026 Budget Statement, delivered on 4 December 2025, projects Citizenship by Investment receipts inside non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, down from EC$157 million the year before. The government must tell the European Commission by 12 November whether the programme ends. - Author: Theon Alleyne - Tags: Business, Antigua and Barbuda, Public Finance, CARICOM, Tax \--- title: "Antigua Budgeted EC$120 Million From Passports This Year. Its Entire Projected Surplus Is EC$69.5 Million." slug: antigua-cip-120-million-2026-budget-against-69-5-million-surplus-2026 canonical: https://www.lacaribenanews.com/antigua-cip-120-million-2026-budget-against-69-5-million-surplus-2026/ date: 2026-10-30 desk: Business tags: \['Business', 'Antigua and Barbuda', 'Public Finance', 'CARICOM', 'Tax'\] feature\_image: antigua-cip-120-million-2026-budget-against-69-5-million-surplus-2026-title.png description: "Antigua and Barbuda's 2026 Budget Statement, delivered on 4 December 2025, projects Citizenship by Investment receipts inside non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, down from EC$157 million the year before. The government must tell the European Commission by 12 November whether the programme ends." --- **Quick summary:** Antigua and Barbuda's 2026 Budget Statement, delivered on 4 December 2025, projects Citizenship by Investment receipts inside non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, down from EC$157 million the year before. The government must tell the European Commission by 12 November whether the programme ends. By LCN Business Desk A government being asked to end a revenue line has already published what that line is worth this year, and it is larger than the surplus the same document projects. ## What does the budget project for passport revenue? EC$120 million, inside non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million. The 2026 Budget Statement, delivered by Prime Minister **Gaston Browne** on **Thursday 4 December 2025** under the title "People-Centred Growth and Development", sets out the year's revenue. In its own words: "Non-tax revenue is expected to reach $240.7 million, including $120 million in CIP receipts and surpluses from state-owned enterprises." | Antigua and Barbuda, 2026 projections | EC$ | | ------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | | Recurrent revenue | **1.49bn** | | of which tax revenue | **1.25bn**, 18 per cent of GDP | | Non-tax revenue | **240.7m** | | of which **CIP receipts** | **120m** | | Primary surplus | **207.9m** | | **Overall surplus** | **69.5m** | | Recurrent spending | **1.21bn** | | Capital expenditure | **230.8m** | Source: Antigua and Barbuda 2026 Budget Statement, "People-Centred Growth and Development". The statement writes these figures with a bare dollar sign and they are Eastern Caribbean dollars. ## What figure is in circulation, and where does it come from? EC$157 million, which is the 2025 figure from the retrospective part of the same document. Several accounts of the European pressure on the programme describe EC$157 million as this year's projection. That figure is in the Budget Statement, earlier in the same document, in the passage reviewing the year that was ending: "Non-tax revenue totals $289.7 million, including $157 million from the Citizenship by Investment Programme and $48 million in dividends and surpluses." The surrounding sentences date it. The same passage gives total expenditure "for 2025" at EC$1.3 billion, capital expenditure rising to EC$143.7 million "in 2025", and public debt falling from EC$3.98 billion in 2024 to EC$3.94 billion in 2025. | The two numbers | Year | Non-tax revenue | of which CIP | | --------------------- | -------- | --------------- | ------------ | | Retrospective passage | **2025** | **289.7m** | **157m** | | Projection passage | **2026** | **240.7m** | **120m** | Source: as above, the 2026 Budget Statement, delivered on Thursday 4 December 2025. So the budget already assumes passport revenue falls by about **24 per cent** this year, on this newspaper's arithmetic from the two figures. A reader given EC$157 million as the 2026 number is being given a figure the government itself has already written down. ## How big is it against the surplus? Larger. The CIP line is about 1.7 times the overall surplus. The statement projects an overall surplus of **EC$69.5 million** and a primary surplus of EC$207.9 million. Against a CIP line of EC$120 million, removing that revenue entirely and changing nothing else would turn the EC$69.5 million surplus into a deficit of **EC$50.5 million**, on this newspaper's subtraction of the two published figures. It is not a forecast of what would happen, because a government losing a revenue line adjusts spending, raises other taxes or borrows. It is the size of the hole before any of that is decided, which is the figure a lender, a ratings analyst or a bondholder works from first. ## What share of revenue is it? About a twelfth of all recurrent revenue, and about half of the non-tax half. The CIP line is **8.1 per cent** of recurrent revenue of EC$1.49 billion, and **49.9 per cent** of non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, both on this newspaper's arithmetic from the published figures. The International Monetary Fund's 2026 Article IV consultation puts CIP revenue at **1.9 per cent of GDP** for 2026, against 2.6 per cent in 2025, on the table as listed in the Fund's published record. Those two readings are consistent with each other and with a programme the budget expects to shrink. ## What is the deadline? 12 November, to confirm the programme ends by 1 June 2028. [Prime Minister Gaston Browne said on 24 October 2026 that Antigua and Barbuda has until 12 November to confirm to the European Commission that it will end its citizenship by investment programme by 1 June 2028](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/oecs-cbi-12-november-confirmation-eu-2441-genuine-link-2026/). Cabinet discussions favoured confirming and no final decision had been made. Against the budget, the dates do more work than the decision. A confirmation given on 12 November 2026 ends the programme on 1 June 2028, which leaves the EC$120 million line intact for this year, largely intact for 2027, and ending five months into 2028\. The fiscal question is therefore about the 2028 and 2029 budgets, not this one. ## What else is the budget leaning on? A tax take below both regional benchmarks, and a capital programme that has nearly doubled. The statement puts tax revenue at **18 per cent of GDP**, which it describes as "an improvement of two percentage points over last year, though still below the ECCU average of 20 per cent and the regional benchmark of 25 per cent". Its largest single tax line is the Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax at **EC$506.9 million**. Capital expenditure is projected at **EC$230.8 million** for 2026, against EC$143.7 million in 2025 and EC$77.7 million in 2024 on the statement's own figures. The 2025 debt-to-GDP ratio is given as falling from 66.8 to **61.4 per cent**, which the statement notes is "nearing the ECCU target of 60 per cent". So the programme being asked to close sits beside a rising capital programme and a tax base the government itself calls below benchmark. ## What else is the government drawing on? Public funds for hotels, and a social security fund whose last published actuarial review is twelve years old. [Prime Minister Gaston Browne said on 25 October 2026 that the government is considering drawing up to $60 million from the Treasury, State Insurance, Social Security and the Airport Authority for two new 150-room hotels, with Cabinet taking the proposals on Wednesday 28 October and neither the instrument nor the return specified](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/antigua-cabinet-60-million-public-funds-two-new-hotels-2026/). [The most recent actuarial review the Social Security Board publishes, as at 31 December 2014, records a Fund with no liquid assets](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/antigua-social-security-fund-actuarial-review-no-liquid-assets-2026/). Those two sit either side of the CIP question rather than beside it. One is a call on balance-sheet assets, the other is a call on a revenue line, and the budget is the only document that prices the second. The same Budget Statement also prices a liability the Fund already holds. [It commits to consolidating the government's obligations to the Social Security Board into a bond amortised over 25 years, with the Fund receiving no principal until year eleven](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/antigua-social-security-437-8-million-bond-no-principal-until-year-eleven-2026/). ## Where does this sit regionally? In an economy whose growth is near the regional middle, not the end being pulled by oil. [The International Monetary Fund's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, published on 13 October, projects Latin America and the Caribbean to grow 2.3 per cent this year, and across the fifteen Caribbean economies it covers the range runs from Guyana at 22.3 per cent](https://www.lacaribenanews.com/imf-weo-october-2026-caribbean-share-growth-spread/). A programme worth 1.9 per cent of GDP is a material line for an economy growing at ordinary regional rates, and it is the line most exposed to a decision taken in Brussels. ## What is settled, and what is not? Every figure here is from the budget the government published. What replaces the revenue is not. The EC$120 million CIP projection, the EC$240.7 million non-tax revenue, the EC$1.49 billion recurrent revenue, the EC$1.25 billion tax revenue at 18 per cent of GDP, the EC$207.9 million primary surplus, the EC$69.5 million overall surplus, the EC$1.21 billion recurrent spending, the EC$230.8 million capital expenditure, the ABST at EC$506.9 million, the 2025 figures of EC$289.7 million and EC$157 million, and the debt and debt-to-GDP figures are all from Antigua and Barbuda's 2026 Budget Statement as published. The 12 November date and the 1 June 2028 end date are from this newspaper's reporting of the Prime Minister's statement of 24 October 2026. Not established: whether the Cabinet has confirmed to the European Commission; what the 2027 and 2028 budgets assume for CIP receipts, which the 2026 statement does not project; what measure or measures would replace the revenue; whether the EC$48 million of dividends and surpluses recorded for 2025 recurs in the 2026 non-tax line, which the statement does not itemise; the application and approval volumes behind either CIP figure, which the statement does not give; and the Fund's full Article IV series, since the figures here are the two years its published record labels. The percentages and the subtraction here are this newspaper's arithmetic from the published figures and are not the government's. A government can lose a revenue line and manage. Antigua published the size of this one on 4 December 2025, eleven months before Brussels set its date. ### The entities - **Antigua and Barbuda 2026 Budget Statement**, titled "People-Centred Growth and Development", is the document projecting the figures in this article. - **Gaston Browne** is the Prime Minister, who delivered it and who gave the 12 November date. - **Citizenship by Investment Programme (CIP)** is the programme whose receipts the budget puts at EC$120 million for 2026. - **European Commission** is the institution to which the confirmation is owed by 12 November. - **Antigua and Barbuda Sales Tax (ABST)** is the largest single tax line, at EC$506.9 million. - **Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU)** is the currency union whose 20 per cent tax-to-GDP average and 60 per cent debt target the statement cites. - **International Monetary Fund** publishes the Article IV consultation that puts CIP revenue at 1.9 per cent of GDP for 2026. - **Social Security Board** is the body whose last published actuarial review dates from 2014. ### What the title card shows Every data point on the article's title card, in text. - **EC$120 million.** CIP receipts projected for 2026. - **EC$69.5 million.** The overall surplus projected for 2026, which the CIP line exceeds. - **EC$157 million.** CIP receipts for 2025, the figure in circulation as this year's. - **About 24 per cent.** The fall between the two, on this newspaper's arithmetic. - **8.1 per cent.** CIP receipts as a share of recurrent revenue of EC$1.49 billion, on the same arithmetic. - **49.9 per cent.** CIP receipts as a share of non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million. - **12 November.** The date by which the government must confirm to the European Commission. ## Frequently Asked Questions ### How much does Antigua and Barbuda expect from its citizenship programme in 2026? EC$120 million, within non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, according to the 2026 Budget Statement. The statement's words are that non-tax revenue "is expected to reach $240.7 million, including $120 million in CIP receipts and surpluses from state-owned enterprises". ### Why is EC$157 million being reported as the 2026 figure? Because it appears in the same document, in the passage reviewing 2025\. That passage gives non-tax revenue of EC$289.7 million including EC$157 million from the programme, alongside total expenditure "for 2025" of EC$1.3 billion and 2025 debt figures. The 2026 projection, twenty-five pages later, is EC$120 million. ### How does the programme compare with the budget surplus? The CIP line is larger. The statement projects an overall surplus of EC$69.5 million and a primary surplus of EC$207.9 million. Removing EC$120 million of CIP revenue and changing nothing else would leave a deficit of EC$50.5 million, on this newspaper's subtraction of the two published figures. ### What share of government revenue is it? 8.1 per cent of recurrent revenue of EC$1.49 billion and 49.9 per cent of non-tax revenue of EC$240.7 million, on this newspaper's arithmetic. The International Monetary Fund's 2026 Article IV consultation puts CIP revenue at 1.9 per cent of GDP, against 2.6 per cent in 2025. ### When would the programme end? Prime Minister Gaston Browne said on 24 October 2026 that Antigua and Barbuda has until 12 November to confirm to the European Commission that the programme ends by 1 June 2028\. On those dates the 2026 revenue is unaffected and the fiscal effect falls on the 2028 and 2029 budgets. ### What is the government's tax position otherwise? Tax revenue is projected at EC$1.25 billion, 18 per cent of GDP, which the statement describes as two percentage points better than last year but below the ECCU average of 20 per cent and the regional benchmark of 25 per cent. Capital expenditure rises to EC$230.8 million from EC$143.7 million in 2025.